PA ANALYSIS: Where next for the Chinese equities rollercoaster?

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17 July 2015

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The first five months of the year saw a sustained and steep climb in the value of Chinese A-shares, while mid-May through June brought a plummet to rival anything you can find in a theme park.

Indeed, Matthews Asia’s Andy Rothman sees China as still offering ‘the world’s best consumption story’.The rebalancing of China’s economy to become more consumption based is a key reason for optimism on a rebound, particularly in the mid to long term.

This story is already a good few chapters in, with consumption accounting for 60% of China’s GDP growth in the first half of this year, the largest share in six years, Rothman said.

Investors will of course have to be selective in the companies they buy when playing this theme, and a lot of the companies benefiting from Chinese consumption will not be listed in China.

Rothman did sound one other note of caution on this however. “China’s consumer spending numbers will remain very healthy, they will decelerate on a year on year basis, as real income growth is cooling a bit, to 7% in 2Q15 from 7.9% in 2Q14,” he noted.

Another big tick in the optimism box according to Rothman is the ongoing stabilisation of the property sector.