The constraints of being in coalition with the Liberal Democrats being the principle thing to blame, or credit, depending on your political viewpoint.
Now however he has freedom to deliver just about whatever he wants. It could be argued that he has more freedom that he needs or expected to have, given many believe parts of the Conservative manifesto were only included as bargaining chips to be offered up in coalition talks.
Will this strengthened hand mean that Osborne delivers a more investor friendly Budget though? The signs are not great. Most of the measures that have been placed into the public domain already have little direct implications for share prices.
One area of the equities market that may be directly impacted is the house builders and related businesses. Osborne is expected to announced a commitment to build 275,000 ‘affordable homes’ by 2020 and formalise the introduction of so-called ‘help to buy’ ISAs.
It is hard to see how the major house builders could fail to benefit from this over the next five years, although much of the upside may be already priced in.
The other side to this coin is what it may imply for interest rates. The vast majority of people buying these newly built properties will need mortgages to fund their purchase therefore for the scheme to be viable mortgages must be affordable, with interest rates low. While the Bank of England is independent of government, it is hard to believe it is not influenced on some level.
