The star fund manager’s comments come despite the fact the UK will remain a member of the single market and customs union until 31 December 2020, thanks to a transitional period agreed with the European Union earlier this month.
The deal, agreed on 19 March between Brexit secretary David Davis and EU negotiator Michel Barnier, enables the UK to negotiate its own trade deals during the transition period and to still be involved in existing EU trade deals with other countries. It also affords EU citizens the right to live and work in the UK.
“Can we relax now and plan for the future with some certainty? Sadly not,” Buxton said.
Over the next 12 months the UK and EU must find a resolution to the Irish border issue, not to mention Gibraltar, and determine the country’s long-term trading relationship with Europe, he said.
At the same time, the UK must deal with its internal divisions, including between Conservative MPs and Northern Irish MPs, who make up the government.
Brussels will also be seeking to ensure life outside the EU is sufficiently hard as to discourage “any other member state from having the temerity to question the benefits of the European project”, he said.
He added: “This is the circle I find impossible to square with one year to go, just as I did after the referendum result all those months ago, back in 2016.”
Buxton said he expected to see contradictory statements over the next year from all sides about the future trading relationship on the table, pointing to EU negotiators dangling the prospect of financial services in a trade deal then removing that from the guidelines for future negotiations.
“The scope for last-minute brinksmanship remains as high as ever,” Buxton concluded. “Roll on March 2019, but expect many a twist and turn before we genuinely have clarity.”
Last week, Hermes chief executive Saker Nusseibeh delivered a damning verdict on the UK’s negotiating hand in Brexit, arguing while 16% of EU exports went to the UK in 2016, 43% of UK exports went the other way.
