Monday 16 December
- Trading statement from Videndum
- Rightmove UK house price index
- Flash purchasing managers’ indices for manufacturing and services industries from Asia, Europe, the UK and USA
- Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales growth figures
Tuesday 17 December
- Full-year results from Hollywood Bowl and Chemring
- Trading statements from Capita and SThree
- German ZEW economic sentiment survey
- US retail sales
- US industrial production and capacity utilisation rate
- US NAHB housebuilding industry survey
- In Europe, quarterly results from ThyssenKrupp Nucera
- In the US, quarterly results from Heico
Wednesday 18 December
- EU inflation
- US building permits
- US new housing starts
- US oil inventories
- In the US, quarterly results from Micron, General Mills, Birkenstock and Jabil
- Federal Reserve interest rate decision
- UK inflation figures
The UK will see new unemployment and inflation figures on the 17 and 18 December, ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee’s interest rate decision on Thursday.
In October’s reading, inflation jumped back over its 2% goal for a reading of 2.3%. In September, inflation had read at just 1.7%. An increase in energy costs was the primary reason, but year-on-year service inflation of 5% also contributed to the increase.
Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, said: “Policymakers cannot rest easy. They may feel that a lot of hefty lifting has been done, given how close inflation is to the 2% target.
“Consumers, however, will continue to feel the aggregate increase in prices over time, and not monitor just the year-on-year change, as that is how their wallets and purses are truly affected – the cumulative increase in the consumer price index over the past five years has been 25%.”
The inflation figures will be balanced with unemployment data, which came in at 4.3%. Average total pay growth year-on-year in September was also 4.3%, outpacing inflation.
“As a result of all of this, the Misery Index for September, the last month when we have data for both inflation and unemployment, was 6.0 (1.7 for inflation plus 4.3 for unemployment).
“That is below the post-January 2000 average of 8.0 and, alongside interest rate cuts, may help to explain why consumer confidence is well up from the lows, although the next few GfK consumer confidence surveys will also start to give a feel for any impact of the November Budget.”
Thursday 19 December
- Trading statement from Serco
- UK Q3 GDP growth (final)
- US existing homes sales
- US weekly initial unemployment claims
- In the US, quarterly results from Accenture, Nike, FedEx, Carnival, Darden Restaurants, CarMax and BlackBerry
- Bank of England interest rate decision
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan will make interest rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday in the final potential for cuts in 2024.
Throughout the year, there have been 179 total reductions across the globe.
“This means 2024 has gone exactly to plan, so far as equity investors are concerned, since the combination of cooling inflation and gentle economic growth has enabled policymakers to loosen policy in a measured way,” the AJ Bell trio said.
“The question now is whether central bankers can continue to manage their core inflation targets, without risking an overshoot if economies run too hot, an undershoot if they leave policy too tight for too long and drive up unemployment, or bubbles forming in financial markets, given the deleterious consequences they can have in the real world as and when they burst.”
While markets are expecting a cut from the Federal Reserve with 90% certainty, the Bank of England remains a coin toss. In Japan, there is a 40% chance of a rate increase.
By December 2025, markets estimate both the UK and US to reach an interest rate of 4%, up from the 3.5% predicted earlier this autumn.
“The best way to measure how markets respond to the policy pronouncements, and any comment from Mr Powell and Mr Bailey in particular, may be to look at the two-year Government bond yield on both sides of the Atlantic – Treasuries in the US and Gilts in the UK. The two-year yield has an uncanny record of moving six to nine months before policymakers,” Mould, Hewson, and Coatsworth said.
Friday 20 December
- UK retail sales
- UK Government borrowing
- Chinese one- and five-year interest rates
- US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index