Monday 2 December
- Purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing industries in Japan, Asia, Europe, the UK and USA
- EU unemployment
- In Europe, quarterly results from Prosus
- In South Africa, quarterly results from Naspers
- In the US, quarterly results from ZScaler
Tuesday 3 December
- Full-year results from Victrex, Greencore, SSP Group, On The Beach and Paragon Banking
- First-half results from DiscoverIE
- US car sales
- In the US, quarterly results from Salesforce and Marvell
A group of US job data reports will be released throughout the week beginning Tuesday 3 December with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
It will be followed by the ADP payrolls survey on Wednesday, weekly initial unemployment claims on Thursday, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ payrolls, wage and unemployment data on Friday. In addition, the Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book on economic conditions on Wednesday 4 December.
In September’s JOLTS reading, there were 7.4 million vacancies.
Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, said: “That was way down from the 12.2 million peak of two years ago and also came in below the pre-pandemic high of 7.6 million from late 2018. This suggests to some that the US economy is normalising after a very unusual period, to others it signifies something more malign and a slackening that could be the harbinger of an economic slowdown.
“Note that the vacancies-to-jobless ratio is now only 1.05 times (7.4 million vacancies to 7.0 million unemployed), well down from a peak of 2.0 times in spring 2022 (12.2 million vacancies to 6.0 million unemployed), but this still compares favourably to pre-pandemic levels.”
Thursday’s unemployment data will be one analysts have an eye on in case of any spike, which could be a predictor of a hard economic landing. Yet the last reading was the lowest level since April, showing economic resilience.
While Thursday’s data could be an economic wellbeing indicator, Friday’s payroll data could provide some insight to the future of interest rate cuts, which can follow a weak set of data. In October, the US added 12,000 jobs, which some believed could prompt a cut.
“Downward changes to preliminary estimates tend to portend of a slowdown or recession, and upward changes of ongoing strong economic growth,” Hewson and Coatsworth said.
“So far in 2024, we have had seven downward revisions and just two upward ones and since the start of 2023 we have had 17 downward revisions and just four upgrades to the initial estimate.”
On 18 December, the Federal Reserve will make its final interest rate decision of the year with markets pricing in a third cut. Yet in the past month, the likelihood of a cut has decreased from 75% to 55%.
“These trends also mean that markets have started to rein in rate cut expectations for next year and the chair Jay Powell’s comments on the outlook for 2025 may be more important than the final monetary policy decision of 2024. Markets currently expect the Fed Funds rate to stand at 4.0% by next Christmas,” the AJ Bell duo said.
Wednesday 4 December
- Full-year results from Tritax Eurobox and Treatt
- US factory orders
- Federal Reserve Beige Book
- US oil inventories
- In the US, quarterly results from Hormel Foods, Campbell’s Soup, Dollar Tree, Chewy and FootLocker
Thursday 5 December
- Full-year results from Future
- First-half results from DS Smith, Watches of Switzerland, Baltic Classifieds and SDI
- German factory orders
- Japanese wage growth
- In the US, quarterly results from Lululemon Athletica, HP Enterprises, Brown-Forman and Dollar General
Friday 6 December
- German industrial production
Housebuilder Berkeley Group will produce its first-half results on 6 December after share price has dropped 10% in the past year.
In its September trading update, Berkeley anticipated £525m in pre-tax profit for the year, which would be slightly down from the fiscal year 2024. In last year’s first-half results, Berkeley reported pre-tax profit of £298m and an operating margin of 19.5%.
Analysts will also look towards net asset value per share, which was £33.63 at the end of the last fiscal year.
“Given their cyclical earnings, housebuilders are often valued on the basis of price to NAV (also known as price to book). These multiples have come down sharply in the past few months across the sector, as enthusiasm has faded for the new government’s deregulation drive and goal to get 300,000 homes a year built, and attention has switched to interest rates and taxes, plus the possibility of additional cladding and remediation costs,” Hewson and Coatsworth said.
“Berkeley’s high-end exposure, premium margins and cash returns mean it currently trades as the most expensive listed builder, on the basis of price to book, while the accident-prone Crest Nicholson is the cheapest, despite (or because of) the failed takeover bid from Bellway.”
