Weekly outlook: BoE expected to raise rates once more

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16 June 2023

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George Angier

Monday 19 June

Full-year results from Volex
Rightmove UK house price index
US National Association of House Builders (NAHB) industry survey

Tuesday 20 June

Full-year results from IG Design
Trading statement from SThree
US housing permits
US housing starts
In the US, quarterly results from FedEx

Wednesday 21 June

Analysts’ meetings at Land Securities and Bloomsbury Publishing
Full-year results from Berkeley Group

Berkeley’s full-year results should shed light on how the housing giant is dealing with a challenging market, according to Aarin Chiekrie, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Chiekrie noted that sales in the five months to the end of February were down around 25% from the prior five months, but he said resilient pricing across the group’s London-focused operations meant full-year pre-tax profits are still expected to rise from £552m to around £600m next week.

Chiekrie added: “However, more recent data from Halifax has shown the first annual decline in average UK house prices since 2012, which could put pressure on Berkely’s top line going forward.

“That means controlling costs and maintaining margins will be a key priority from here. There have been early signs of build cost inflation moderating, so investors will be eager to hear if that trend has continued into the new financial year.”

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould and Dani Hewson said shares in the high-end housebuilder are marginally lower than they were a year ago and trade around a quarter below February 2020’s all-time high.

“In terms of profit, Berkeley expects to make around £600m, pre-tax, in the year to April 2023 and more than £400m in the year to April 2024,” the pair added.

UK inflation figures
UK Government borrowing figures
In the US, quarterly results from Winnebago

Thursday 22 June

Full-year results from DS Smith

Markets have already been given a hint of what to expect from DS Smith’s full-year results next week, said Matt Britzman, an equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Despite falling sales volumes, DS Smith remains on track for a second consecutive year of impressive double-digit profit growth, and underlying Ebita (earnings before interest, tax, and amortization) is expected to be in the £850-£860m range. This would represent a big jump on the £616m generated the prior year, according to Britzman.

“The demand picture into the new financial year will be key. Management has previously implied that they expect volumes to move higher, but that’s yet to materialise. There should be some commentary on order books next week, which will help paint a better picture for investors.

“Take a step back from short-term noise and longer-term growth drivers look encouraging. The shift from plastic packaging isn’t going away anytime soon and as a key supplier of cardboard boxes to e-commerce groups, DS Smith is poised to benefit,” Britzman said.

Full-year results from Mulberry and Speedy Hire
Bank of England monetary policy decision

Markets are pricing in a further interest rate hike of 25 basis points at the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday, bringing the base rate to 4.75%. Mould and Hewson pointed out that the central bank is still fighting inflation on the one hand, and trying to support a fairly torpid (and indebted) economy on the other.

Off the back of red-hot wage inflation figures, Mould and Hewson said markets are expecting 0.25% hikes in August, September, November and December to take the base rate to 5.75%.

“That is expected to be the peak, but the first cut is not expected until June 2024 – a year from now,” they added.

The consensus expectation is for the bank to continue its policy of quantitative tightening (QT), shrinking its balance sheet at the rate of £80bn a year.

“[That] is a relatively small sum compared to the £895bn pumped in by the asset purchase programme but by the end of March the Bank of England has pruned its holdings of Gilts and corporate bonds to £816bn,” said the pair from AJ Bell.

Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
US existing homes sales
US oil inventories
US weekly unemployment claims
In the US, quarterly results from Accenture, Darden Restaurants and Smith & Wesson

Friday 23 June