Monday 4 July
- -First-half results from Porvair
Tuesday 5 July
- -First quarter trading statement from Sainsbury’s
“The big supermarket chains are going to be an interesting measure of inflation, how shoppers are responding to it and how the big grocers are managing to balance helping their customers out on price with the need to defend their own margins in the face of rising input costs,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould and financial analyst Danni Hewson.
Tesco reported a 1.5% drop in like-for-like sales in its Q1 figures released in June, suggesting Sainsbury’s might also start to feel the squeeze of customers trading down to cheaper brands or cutting out some purchases altogether.
Of its various business segments, general merchandise looks particularly vulnerable. Last year, like-for-like sales were down 4.6%, including a 3% hit for Argos and 12% for Sainsbury’s own stores.
“Supply chain disruption and a general decline in certain markets have kept a lid on sales recently,” said Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst Matthew Britzman. “Sainsbury’s finds itself more exposed than some peers given its ownership of Argos and the huge integration programme that’s in progress.”
- -Full-year results from CML Microsystems
- -Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia
- -Purchasing managers’ indices for services industries for Asia, Europe, UK and US
- -US factory orders
Wednesday 6 July
- -Trading statements from Robert Walters and Topps Tiles
- -Purchasing managers’ index for the construction industry in the UK
- -German factory orders
- -US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
The first of four US employment-related updates this week could indicate if the world’s largest economy is headed for recession.
“If the US economy is weakening, you might expect to see vacancies start to decline and the quits rate to slow, the latter because workers may feel it’s safer to stay put rather than make a move if the economic outlook is a bit less certain,” Mould and Hewson said.
In April, job vacancies were 11.4 million, a fraction below March’s all-time record of 11.9 million, while the quits ratio was 2.9%.
- -US oil inventories
- -In Asia, a trading update from semiconductor foundry UMC
- -In Europe, quarterly results from Bang & Olufsen
Thursday 7 July
- -Full-year results from Currys, Watches of Switzerland and Jet2
- -First-half results from Wood Group
- -Trading statements from Persimmon, Ferrexpo, Entain and Victrex
Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said demand for housing has remained “super strong” but adds any noise that buyers are becoming more cautious will make investors nervous.
“Despite its robust performance, [Persimmon] shares have fallen by 34% since the start of the year, as worries about a housing slowdown persist. For now, the wind is blowing in a more agreeable direction for Persimmon in terms of its operational performance and, at the last estimate, full year completions were set to rise between 4-7%, so there will be keen interest in whether that target is still on track.
“Cost pressures from inflation and supply chain issues remain, but Persimmon has an advantage here given that the company owns a range of manufacturing facilities that help alleviate this more challenging environment. So far, its industry-leading margins have stayed intact and there will be a keen eye trained on whether that important metric can be maintained.’’
- -Halifax UK house price index
- -Challenger, Gray and Christmas job losses and ADP non-farm employment stats
Approximately 20,712 jobs were cut in May, according to the last Challenger, Gray and Christmas job losses survey, a 16% year-on-year decline. However, layoffs were far more pronounced in certain sectors, such as tech where 4,044 jobs were sliced, the highest monthly total since December 2020 when companies cut as many as 5,235 jobs.
Similarly, May’s ADP non-farm employment figures revealed job creation was slowing, with private payrolls rising by 128,000 jobs over the month, the lowest since spring 2020 as the pandemic hit.
Interpretations of the ADP data were mixed. “Some argued that meant the US economy was slowing. Others countered by arguing it meant the US was just reaching full employment and that the economy was strong,” said Mould and Hewson.
- -US oil inventories
- -In the US, quarterly results from Levi Strauss
Friday 8 July
- -Trading statement from Vistry
- -In Asia, a trading update from semiconductor foundry TSMC
- -US non-farm payrolls data
While new jobs in the private sector slowed in May, the Bureau for Labor Statistics’ non-farm payrolls data overshot expectations, indicating 390,000 jobs had been added to the wider US economy. This left the unemployment rate at 3.6% and drove the average hourly salary 5.2% higher to $31.95.
