Monday 22 February
-First-half results from Dechra Pharmaceuticals and Finsbury Food
-German Ifo business climate index
-Belgian Courbe Synthetique business confidence survey
-In South Africa, quarterly results from AngloGold Ashanti
-In the US, quarterly results from Berkshire Hathaway
Tuesday 23 February
-UK unemployment figures
The unemployment rate for September to November stood at 5%, with 1.72 million people out of work, meaning that some 360,000 people had lost their job since the pandemic began, notes AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould.
The rate could have been worse as 2.4 million people were still on the furlough scheme, leading to predictions that, as government support ends, the jobless rate could peak at around 7.5% later this year. The current figure is still below the UK’s average jobless rate since 1971 of 6.8%.
However, there is good news for those who have held onto their jobs. Mould said wage growth, at 3.6% year-on-year, is outpacing low inflation levels, at 0.7% based on the consumer price index. This helps underpin the view of Andy Haldane, Bank of England chief economist, that the economy is primed to bounce back as this group of people is ready and poised to get out and spend when they can.
-Full-year results from HSBC and InterContinental Hotels
-EU inflation figures
-US Conference Board consumer confidence reading
-US Case-Shiller house price index
-In the US, quarterly results from Home Depot, Square and Macy’s
Wednesday 24 February
-Lloyds’ full-year results
Analysts are forecasting a dividend for calendar 2020 from Lloyds of 1p a share, increasing to 2p in 2021 – still below the pre-pandemic peak, said Mould.
Pre-tax profits are expected to be £1bn, down from £4.4bn in 2019. Looking forward to 2021, should chief executive Antonio Horta Osorio give any guidance, analysts will be looking for pre-tax earnings of £3.3bn – again, still below the pre-pandemic peak.
Mould noted Lloyds’ net interest margin and impairment charges will come under scrutiny.
He argued that the net interest margin has been sliding lower as central banks anchor interest rates at record lows and manipulate yield curves to flatten them. Lloyds’ net interest margin began stabilising in the third quarter at 2.42% and the fourth quarter figure is forecast to be broadly unchanged.
As for impairment charges, Lloyds’ booked charges of £1.4bn in Q1 and £2.4bn in Q2, before dropping to just £300m in Q3 as lockdowns eased and the economy regained a bit of momentum. Lloyds has guided toward the lower end of its anticipated full-year range of £4.5 to £5.5bn, implying around £400m of write-offs in Q4.
Investors will also be looking at Lloyds’ tangible net asset value per share figure, which was 52.2p at the end of Q3. The shares trade at a near 30% discount to that meaning their shares could be considered cheap if the bank can sustainably improve return on equity or prove that the asset valuations are completely reliable.
-First-half results from Reckitt Benckiser and Metro Bank
-Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
-US new homes sales data
-US oil inventory data
-In Asia, quarterly results from Hong Kong Exchanges
-In Europe, quarterly results from Puma and hotelier Accor
-In the US, quarterly results from Nvidia and L Brands
Thursday 25 February
-Anglo-American full-year results
Shares in Anglo American are up by around 40% over the past year, “despite a horrible set of interim results, which showed a sharp drop in profits, drops in production and a dividend cut”, according to Mould.
Buoyant platinum, iron ore, nickel and copper prices are helping as markets look toward an economic upturn and a possible return of inflation.
Analysts are looking for $9.4bn Ebitda, down from $10bn a year ago but big rebound in the second half after the interim outcome of $3.4bn.
Key earners are expected to be iron ore, platinum group metals and copper. Chief executive officer Mark Cutifani has targeted an improvement in output for diamonds (De Beers) and metallurgical and thermal coal, which are both expected to show big drops.
-Full-year results from BAE Systems, Mondi, Standard Chartered, Grafton, Aston Martin Lagonda, Spectris, Vistry and Serco
-Trading statement from Primark-owner Associated British Foods
-US consumer durables order figures
-US weekly jobless claims data
-In Asia, quarterly figures from Budweiser APAC
-In Europe, quarterly figures from ABInBev and Bayer
-In the US, quarterly figures from Salesforce.com, Airbnb, Moderna, DoorDash, VMWare, Dell and BestBuy
Friday 26 February
-Full-year results from International Consolidated Airlines, RSA and Rightmove
-UK Nationwide house price index
-In Europe, quarterly figures from BASF and LafargeHolcim
