Weekly outlook: UK water companies and Aviva report; post-election US consumer confidence

The key events for UK wealth managers for the week starting 23 November

Photo by Jacek Dylag on Unsplash

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Monday 23 November

– Flash purchasing managers’ indices in Asia, Europe, UK and US

Tuesday 24 November

– Compass half-year results

Contract catering firm Compass’s full-year trading update in September revealed a 19% dent to year on year revenue growth as a result of the closure of sports and leisure, business and industry, and education sectors due to global lockdowns.

However, the business has made a number of changes, as AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould noted, including cutting executive salaries, putting acquisitions on hold, tapping the Covid Corporate Financing Facility for £600m and cancelling the 2020 dividend.

“As a result, chief executive Dominic Blakemore noted that Compass had some £5bn in available funding by the end of September, including banking facilities of £2.8bn, the CCFF for £600m and cash of £1.6bn,” said Mould. “Analysts will look to check this figure against the rate of cash flow statement to gauge Compass’ ability to go weather the pandemic and downturn in trading, should both persist.”

– US consumer confidence

The latest consumer confidence reading will be an early test of how the presidential election result is playing out in America, said Mould. The October score was 100.9, down a fraction from September and way down from 126 the year before, he said.

“The US stock market, as benchmarked by the S&P 500 index, and the consumer confidence indicator tended to move in lockstep for much of the past decade or so, although the pandemic seems to have taken care of that,” said Mould. “The past is no guarantee for the future and it will be interesting to see how the people whose spending drives the world’s biggest economy view the world right now and what effect, if any, that has on the stock market – or whether it is a rising stock market that gives them the confidence to spend, which would help to explain president Trump’s apparent enthusiasm for rising share prices.”

– Full-year results from Greencore

– First-half results from Pennon, AO World, Cranswick and Pets At Home

On Pennon, the Share Centre said the water utility’s shares have been resilient this year, in line with other defensive companies. “Among the key assets owned by Pennon is the South West Water business, which serves a population of 1.7 million people. Further, the company sold its Viridor recycling business for £4.2bn in March, and so the market is likely to be interested in detail on how the company plans to use the £3.7bn it received from the deal.”

– Trading statements from Intertek, CRH and Devro

– German Ifo industrial confidence survey

– US Case-Shiller house price index

– Richmond Fed manufacturing survey

– In the US, quarterly results from VMWare, Dell, Analog Devices, Best Buy, HP Inc, HP Enterprises, spam-maker Hormel Foods and Dollar Tree

Wednesday 25 November

– United Utilities Group Q2 2021 earnings release

There has only been a partial recovery in the share price since March, as the market focussed on a possible increase in bad debts as a result of the virus and how stable the dividend is going forward, said the Share Centre. “With a current dividend yield of over 4%, income investors will be looking out for any news regarding its dividend policy.”

– Full-year results from Virgin Money UK

– First-half results from De La Rue and Babcock International

– Trading statement from Melrose Industrial

The focus will now be on managing the challenging situation created by the virus, especially for its aerospace and automotive divisions, the Share Centre noted. “The share price has been hit very hard in the current crisis, and although there has been a small recovery on the back of vaccine hopes, the shares remain one of the more volatile in the FTSE 100,” it said. “Any update on cost savings or future sales will be worth noting.”

– European Central Bank Financial Stability Review

– US durable goods orders

– Belgian Courbe Synthétique industrial confidence indicator

– US new homes sales figures

– US oil inventories data

– In the US, quarterly results from agricultural and construction equipment giant Deere

Thursday 26 November

– Severn Trent first-half results

The utility company’s shares have performed solidly over the past year, rising 9% while the FTSE 100 has fallen by around a sixth over the same period, said Mould.

He added analysts will be looking to chief executive Liv Garfield for comments on the regulator Ofwat-approved spending and pricing plans for the AMP7 regulatory cycle that runs through to 2025, and its hit to revenues due to the pandemic.

– Aviva Q3 2020 sales and revenue release

The Share Centre said the life insurance group is now under the control of Amanda Blanc as CEO, so it will be interesting to see any changes in style or strategy from her predecessor.

“Covid-19 has hurt the business through higher insurance claims and lower investment returns and therefore management fees. This resulted in the suspension of the dividend, which although now reinstated, has prompted a review of the company’s long-term dividend strategy.

“With viable vaccines on the horizon, investors will be pinning their hopes on any positive news, particularly the possible resumption of the dividend. Meanwhile, though, it is still expected that new management will continue to pursue structural reorganisations to reduce the complexity of the organisation and deliver cost cutting programmes.”

– First-half results from Britvic

– Trading statements from Aviva and veterinary services group CVS

– EU money supply growth figures

– In Europe, quarterly results from Rémy Cointreau

Friday 27 November

– Trading statement from newspaper and online publisher Reach

– Nationwide UK house price index

 

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