Volatility spikes and bonds sell off on central banks’ hawkish sentiment

Volatility spiked and European bonds sold off heavily during a week in which markets were caught short by the European Central Bank’s hint at tapering monetary policy.

Volatility spikes and bonds sell off on central banks’ hawkish sentiment

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The VIX, known as the ‘fear gauge’, briefly surged above 15 on Thursday, its highest level in more than a month.

Meanwhile, the VXN, a measure of market expectations of 30-day volatility for the Nasdaq 100 index, closed at its highest level since November last year, at 18.43.

This followed a sustained period of low volatility measured by the VIX in recent months. On 21 June the index closed at its lowest level in 23 years at 10.75, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices data.

Elsewhere, Deutsche Bank noted that during the the week Friday 23 June to Friday 30 June, 10-year gilts were up 21.9 basis points to 1.25% – the highest since 16 February.

Meanwhile, 10-year bunds of the same duration were up 19.7bps to 0.45% – the highest since 21 March.

In the US, treasuries were up 12.4bps at 2.267% – the highest since 23 May.

The 10-year treasury-bund spread was at its tightest (182bps) since Trump was elected.

The euro also climbed 2.21% against the dollar to its highest level (1.1441) since April last year.

This came following mixed messages from senior central bank figures from the UK and Europe earlier in the week.

Speaking at the ECB Central Banking Forum in Sintra, Portugal, ECB president Mario Draghi hinted at a potential tightening of monetary policy when delivering an upbeat prognosis on the eurozone recovery.