With growth in the BRICs seemingly constrained – Chinese productivity in particular having seemingly collapsed – Greenburg sees the likes of Taiwan and Republic of Korea as leading the way on a country level in being characterised by having less government involvement in industry and lower costs of capital.
“The companies that will thrive are those that run a highly-efficient Western model,” he said, pointing out that traditional exporters will struggle as Western consumers tighten their belts.
“China has moved on from the days of cheap labour, so the only way forward is to become more efficient in terms of working practices.”
The “gems” he is populating his portfolio with tend to have a consumer or industrial tilt, acknowledging that the “new model” is at this point “more of a micro than macro force”.
For example, he picked out Brazilian shoe manufacturer Grendene, which has established international brand awareness, and Mothersumi, a manufacturer of automotive wiring harnesses in India.
Greenberg said he has also moved to an over-weight in Brazilian state-run oil giant Petrobras, despite its indebtedness. The firm’s share price has tumbled in recent weeks, though the manager pointed out that it is only two years away from major production.
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