Room for optimism as UK GDP disappoints

UK GDP fell to 0.5% in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics estimated on Tuesday, lower than the 0.6% many analysts had expected and down from 0.7% in Q2.

Room for optimism as UK GDP disappoints

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Manufacturing continued to be a weight, falling 0.3% during the quarter, but was lower than the 0.5% decrease in Q2. This was offset, however by the 2.4% jump in mining and quarrying, lower than the 7.5% rise in the second quarter. Water and waste management and energy supply rose 1.2% and 0.2% respectively.

“Evidence from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) suggested a reduction in maintenance in oil and gas facilities, compared with previous years. Additionally, the recent tax changes announced in the March Budget may have been contributing factors to the growth in mining and quarrying in the last 2 quarters,” ONS said.

The primary factor in the drop, however, was the 2.2% fall in construction, which followed an increase of 1.4% in Q2.

There was some room for optimism, however, as the services sector rose 0.7%, higher than the 0.6% number seen in the second quarter.

“In the latest quarter there were increases in all four of the main services aggregates distribution, hotels and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; business services and finance; government and other services”, the ONS said, pointing to the 1% growth in business services and finance as the primary driver of the jump.

While growth was lower quarter-on-quarter, the first Q3 GDP print for 2015 was 2.3% higher than the comparable period in 2014.

CBI director of economics, Rain Newton-Smith, said the numbers show a continuing of momentum in the UK economy.

But she added, while consumer spending, improving productivity and wages continue to bolster UK growth, the weaker global outlook, combined with the strength of sterling will keep the pressure on UK manufacturers.

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