PA ANALYSIS: Is the world ready for a ‘moderately prosperous’ China?

For what is traditionally a highly secretive event, the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee’s fifth plenary session taking place this week is liable to have a pretty high media profile.

PA ANALYSIS: Is the world ready for a ‘moderately prosperous’ China?

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This is because, by the end of the week the world should have a better idea of the country’s thirteenth five year plan and, in particular how it plans to sustain, stable economic growth over the next five years.

That it takes place the same week as the October meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee, which is broadly expected once again to stay its hand on interest rates – partly as a result of worries over growth in China – serves only to further highlight its importance.

So what can be expected?

According to Diamond Lee, manager of the Old Mutual Greater China Equity Fund, “Investors will want reassurance on how the authorities are going to tackle the issue of China’s slowing growth rate, likely to be set at 6.5% – 7% for the next five years, and whether or not the country’s transition from an export-driven economy to one based on domestic consumption is still on track.

He added: “Particular attention will be paid to how exactly the authorities intend to promote China’s ‘new’ economic industries – technology, healthcare, media and communications – at the expense of the ‘older’ more traditional industries of steel, shipbuilding and coal.”

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