could zambia be the new brazil

Sven Richter puts the case forward for Zambia as an up-and-coming frontier market, saying it is now where Brazil was at the beginning of this century.

could zambia be the new brazil

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From policeman in Zambia, to sweeper and porter in the UK and then back to Zambia where he was Governor of Lusaka, member of Parliament and a minister in the government of Frederick Chiluba. Along the way, he earned the nickname King Cobra for being blunt and forthright.

In 2001, Sata left the governing party and formed his own political party, the Patriotic Front which, in its first electoral contest, won all of one seat. The following election was more successful when he lost by only a small margin.  It’s the 2011 election which is notable when he won by a sound margin, receiving 43% of the votes while the incumbent received 36%.

While Sata is a remarkable person, he is only one man. Sitting in the office of a manager of a company on the day following the election, we could see results as each polling station announced them.  Our host was very gracious but you could see he kept glancing at his TV set as we did ourselves.  It was clear that, while Sata was liked and respected and people expected him to win, he did not do so in a vacuum.

From individual Zambians who lined-up to vote and then watched the results as each polling station announced them, to Rupiah Banda the incumbent President who handed over power, saying that he must bow to the will of the people, once it became clear he had lost. The election was a victory for Zambia.

But now the real work begins, and the most interesting part of the process.  Sata and his party campaigned on a platform of getting rid of corruption and making sure the benefits of Zambia’s natural resources are seen by local Zambians.

While some people alleged he had an anti-Chinese stance his policies are much more thought out than that, as can be seen by his appointment of Kenneth Kaunda, a former President, as special envoy to China.  He wants the Chinese to continue to invest but he wants to ensure that a fair portion of the rewards remain in Zambia.

Sata states that the Chinese are good partners but Zambians must be clear about what they want in contracts and what benefits they expect.  While Chinese investors may be the most high profile this policy extends to all investors in Zambia.

Guy Scott, the deputy president, has called for more investors during his trip to Australia and stated that government policies are fair and consistent but has warned that investors must invest in a manner so as not to take advantage of local Zambians.

Sata has also focused on corruption, in the police force he has fired 13 Brigadiers and 16 Colonels who were improperly appointed and appointed six female officers as commissioners of police.

This is what Sata said in his opening speech to parliament: “The challenge of my Government is to improve the quality of life for the majority of our people, especially those in rural areas. Our goal as a PF Government is to achieve higher and sustained economic growth that will uplift the well-being of the poor in our society. To this end, the Patriotic Front Government will introduce programmes to accelerate the socio-economic empowerment of citizens, especially the youth and women.”

There is still a long road to go in Zambia but this stage of the process reminds me of the when Lula came to power in Brazil.

As investors, policies that contribute to the growth of the country and seeing that people across all walks of wealth able to improve their standard of living, is attractive to us; for instance, we are invested in one of the largest Zambian agricultural businesses.  If people have more money in their pockets we see tremendous potential for increased sales of their products.

 

Sven Richter is head of frontier markets at Renaissance Asset Managers

 

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