Active currency decisions a must in current environment – Natixis
Right now, which currency share class you choose is a much more material allocation decision than the call on the asset class itself, Natixis said on Wednesday.
Right now, which currency share class you choose is a much more material allocation decision than the call on the asset class itself, Natixis said on Wednesday.
Overshadowed by the US presidential election last week was a “bold and historic” move by the Indian government to ban 500 and 1000 rupee currency notes, which is expected to be “transformational” for the economy in the medium term, asset managers said.
The dollar has rallied in recent days as investors believe stronger US GDP growth and Fed rate hikes will push the greenback up. But markets are ignoring the forces that are likely to drag the dollar down in the longer term.
Currency investing is a relative trade so needs markets to go up or to go down allowing specialist managers like Paul Lambert to take advantage of the volatility this creates – just as long as they don’t stay still!
The strong dollar has pushed global dividends down for the first time in the Henderson Global Dividend Index’s seven-year history.
Neil Woodford has said he believes the United Kingdom’s economy would not be adversely impacted by leaving the European Union, with temporary currency weakness the only real issue.
The performance of the dollar has been one of the mainstays of global markets over the course of the past 18 months – but things are likely to be more nuanced this year
As UK’s political landscape becomes increasingly uncertain, taking brave currency positions is not a wise move at the moment, according to Miton.
Investors should expect further sterling weakness in the coming months, according to Carl Hammer, currency strategist at SEB.
The rebound in global equities since the beginning of October looks largely played out, unless there is a turnaround in earnings forecasts, said Christophe Donay, chief strategist at Pictet Wealth Management.
Investors are still positioned in the winning trades of 2014, says Neuberger Berman’s Ugo Lancioni, but the case for those trades is now far from obvious.
Global currency risk remains a concern for income investors, but its influence is likely to wane going forward, says Hugh Yarrow, manager of the Evenlode Income Fund.