Even if we were to push through with leaving the EU, the negotiations do not stop there.
“Undoubtedly those still in the EU will not be eager to let the UK ‘have their cake and eat it’ as this could set a precedent for others to follow suit,” warns Columbia Threadneedle CIO Mark Burgess.
“Therefore it is inevitable that at some point politicians will have to manage a trade-off between what is in the best interest of the economy and what we are willing to cede in terms of political power.
“Negotiations are likely to be long and arduous and there will be many iterations before an agreement is formed. The longer this takes the more uncertainty starts to impact the economy and so the fate of the UK lies in the hands of the politicians to reach a swift agreement that all parties accept – a task few would envy.”
So what can you do to increase your chances of making the best investment decisions on Friday, and in the months ahead?
There are no easy answers, but while this vote is unprecedented in terms of its nature, the magnitude of the potential impact on Britain, and its impact on markets, those of a certain vintage do have some experience to draw from.
In the event of Brexit, Guy Stephens, managing director at Rowan Dartington Signature, sees parallels with the doom that ensued when Britain spectacularly crashed out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.
“It appeared like we had descended into a form of banana republic with several changes in interest rates in one day – clearly the authorities were in panic,” he remembers.
“Sterling devalued and it took a couple of days for investors to realise that this was great news for the UK economy which had been struggling with an overvalued currency.
“If Sterling falls by the forecast of up to 10% on a successful leave vote, this will be a boost to exporters so there may be a very good opportunity to buy selected equities amid the turmoil.
“Considered investments at such moments can invariably be some of the most profitable.”
