As the bull ends is the bond bear in sight

A lot has been made of the presumption that we are at the end of a 30-year bull market for bonds. But is this premise right, and if so does this also mean we are in a bear market for bonds right now?

As the bull ends is the bond bear in sight

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Robert Lee, director of taxable fixed income at Lord Abbett, thinks the premise is “likely” that we are at the end of a 30-year bull run but that it is “somewhat unlikely” that we are in a bear market.

Lee runs US fixed income propositions so from his perspective low GDP growth alongside 1.5-2% inflation does reveal the end of a great run while he gives technical and fundamental reasons why demand for bonds is still there.

Part 1

The inflation and deflation debate takes on different connotations depending on which market you are studying. One thing that is shared, however, is the lack of inflation despite the volume of government stimulus programs put in place in the past five years.
Lee explains his standpoint and why he is more wary of deflation while than inflation even though he admits wage and pricing pressures are likely to continue.

Part 2

Without getting too involved in the classic quote from Donald Rumsfeld, there are an awful lot of unknowns and uncontrollable events affecting fund managers’ day jobs.
Robert Lee talks about why it is so important to pay attention to the macros, to election cycles, fiscal policies et al, while also having to translate all of this into bottom-up security selections. Without giving the shop away as he says, he also goes through some of his sector and security picks.

Part 3

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