Has the Great Rotation finally arrived?
In the aftermath of the US elections, investors have been selling off bonds and buying equities. Is this a sign the long-awaited Great Rotation is finally unfolding?
In the aftermath of the US elections, investors have been selling off bonds and buying equities. Is this a sign the long-awaited Great Rotation is finally unfolding?
Whereas equity markets have quickly shrugged off the result of the US presidential elections, peripheral bond spreads have widened since. Trump’s election seems to have reminded markets of the possible consequences of an Italian no-vote in next week’s referendum.
European equities are now on their longest net outflow streak since 2012. But it is not just equity funds that are being sold off. Bond funds are also under increasing pressure.
More than 60% of wealthy investors in Germany, Switzerland and the UK are “fairly” or “very” confident in their ability to construct investment portfolios without any outside help, according to a study conducted by asset management consultancy Cerulli.
Donald Trump’s election victory has triggered an almost unprecedented move into US equities.
Emerging market equities and debt have been the most popular asset classes with European investors this year. But now Donald Trump’s election threatens to spoil the party.
The dollar has rallied in recent days as investors believe stronger US GDP growth and Fed rate hikes will push the greenback up. But markets are ignoring the forces that are likely to drag the dollar down in the longer term.
Passive ESG strategies tend to focus exclusively on large caps. This is a problem because they miss out on ESG opportunities in small cap companies that can only be exploited by active managers, according to Ryan Smith, head of ESG research at Kames Capital. Does he have a point?
The surprise US election victory by Donald Trump has greatly increased uncertainty, yet asset prices are now back at similar levels as just a couple of days ago when a Clinton victory looked more likely.
Fund managers and fund selectors alike are haunted by the prospect of Trumpian rule, but still deem a Clinton victory more likely. However, it’s paramount investors don’t leave themselves too exposed to the consequences of a Trump triumph.
Fund management companies expect the world’s highest returns over the next 12 months to be found in emerging markets. They have severely downscaled their return prospects for European equities over the past couple of months, apparently in response to the attitudes of their clients.
European investors have been rather apathetic about US equities for an extended period. This is unlikely to change if Hillary Clinton wins the presidential elections. A Trump win, however, will probably prompt a pronounced shift in sentiment.