Weekly outlook: UK retail sales, GDP and trade figures; Tesco full-year results

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09 April 2021

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Harriet Habergham

Monday 12 March

-Full year results from consultancy firm Elizirr and property agent Belvoir

-EU retail sales figures

-Japan Producer Price Index

-US Fed budget statement

Tuesday 13 March

-British Retail Consortium UK Retail Sales Figures

Last month’s BRC sales monitor showed positive growth of 9.5%, powered by the publication of the government’s roadmap to reopening as parents rushing to replace school uniforms helped boost non-food items up 6.6% on a like-for-like basis, according to AJ Bell financial analyst Danni Hewson.

Bricks and mortar retailers will be concerned by last month’s 82.2% increase in online sales of non-food items, compared to the 3.6% growth the previous year. Retailers are calling on the government to introduce a “shop out to help out” scheme.

-UK GDP/UK Trade Figures February 2021

Economic activity dropped as new restrictions were imposed but Hewson expects February’s GDP figures to paint a more optimistic picture. The figures will be a indication of whether growth is on track to rebound to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year as predicted by the Bank of England, as well as demonstrate how adaptable the country has become and how it will cope with future lockdowns if needed.

Trade figures between the UK and EU fell significantly at the start of 2021 and February’s figures will determine if that decline was a blip or the start of a long-term shift. Exports to the EU fell 40.7% in January while imports were down by almost 30% as one in five exporters contacted by the Federation of Small Businesses had temporarily paused sales to the EU because of red tape.

-Full year results from JD Sports and SigmaRoc, interim results from Revolution Bars

-US Consumer Price Index

-Australia NAB Business Confidence Index

-China trade figures

Wednesday 14 March

-Tesco plc full-year results

Tesco expects 2021 operating profits to be broadly in line with that of 2020 excluding the repayments of business rate relief. It’s Q3 trading update in January recorded group sales up 6.1% year-on-year on a like-for-like basis, with the UK up 7.2%.

Pre-tax profit is expected to be £891m, down from £1.3bn in the year to February 2020, weighed down by the cost of ensuring customer’s safety during a pandemic and the business rate relief repayment, according to Hewson.

The supermarket giant paid out dividends of 59.04p a share in the year to February 2021, including a special divident payment of 50.93p a share after the sale of its Thai and Malaysian businesses. The pay out was followed by a share consolidation which kept the share prices from tumbling.

-US inflation figures

-US Fed’s Beige Book