pa analysis why should china listen to imf

The IMF has released its inaugural assessment of China’s financial sector, which praised the “remarkable progress” the country has made toward a more “commercially-oriented and financially sound system”. Not at all patronising then…

pa analysis why should china listen to imf

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The report goes on to list a number of potential risks the IMF has identified for China, which it describes as a "steady build-up of financial sector vulnerabilities".

It said the system in China was becoming more complex, with inter-linkages between markets, institutions and across international borders on the rise, and added that informal credit markets and off-balance sheet activities were also on the increase.

Admittedly, the IMF has made some progress of its own towards becoming an organisation that is more representative of the changing economic dynamics in the world: It reformed the rules surrounding membership quotas and governance in December 2010.

But one can’t quite shake the sense of a developed world-dominated institution preaching to what is in many ways a country that is faring far better at the moment – economically at least.

Most China commentators I have spoken to in recent weeks are perfectly aware of the various challenges the Chinese government faces in negotiating its economic future.

Yet almost all of them remain generally unconcerned about the country’s growth and investment potential over the medium term.

Western economies arguably have greater problems to surmount, and the difference for China is that being a "command economy" it can deal with its issues swiftly.

Putting aside the ethical and moralistic debate surrounding a command economy, one clear advantage is the ability for the authorities to quickly initiate policies that may not be palatable to the man on the street, but can correct any development that threatens the health of the economy as a whole.

Boon of a command economy

Along this vein, the shadow banking system in China, which many have voiced concerns over, is seen by the state as better on its books than off it.

In addition the liabilities it presents have been described as a "drop in the ocean" compared to the vast sums of money at the disposal of the Chinese government.

Other issues facing the government – inflation, a potential property bubble and a slowing of credit – have also been dealt with efficiently: Inflation is deemed by many to have peaked, property prices are on their way back down and the government is nearing the close of a tightening cycle that will hopefully spell the end of low credit availability.

That is not to say there are no potential problems left for the authorities to confront. As the middle class grows in China, it is sure to want greater freedoms along with bigger cars and designer handbags, and it is up to the government to handle this in a mature manner.

A new government is due to takeover in 2013 and while there is unlikely to be a drastic and sudden shift in policy (that would be too unsettling) it has been predicted that the next government will be slightly more liberal.

The latest five-year plan revealed at the start of this year also showed a propensity to deal with economic factors in a considered fashion before they present too great a problem.

So the government set a lower growth target of 7% for future years, something it views as more sustainable over the long term, and committed to the globalisation of the RMB by 2016.

While I’m sure the IMF had the best intentions, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese lost no sleep over the findings of the report. So far at least, they seem to be doing pretty well at spotting the dangers and dealing with them on their own.

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