PA ANALYSIS: Weak pound = strong UK economy?

On all measures, sterling has taken a pounding in 2016, but will its prospects improve into the new year?

PA ANALYSIS: Weak pound = strong UK economy?

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It was the result of the EU referendum that set our currency on the skids, and ongoing uncertainty around the implications for Brexit and the triggering of Article 50 are unlikely to be fully resolved in the next 12 months.

Compare this to the prospects for the dollar, which has just breached a 14-year high on the back of a Fed rate rise and fresh comments from Janet Yellen on the strength of the US jobs market.

The dollar index, which measures against a basket of currencies, has been up at over 103.50 which compares to heights of late 2002.

Today, £1 will get you $1.23, and has been trading in and around its lowest levels against the greenback since 1985.

“The pound is coming under significant pressure, as the Brexit fears, coupled with a new 2016 high for UK public borrowing brings heightened fears of another big move lower for sterling,” said Joshua Mahony, Market Analyst at IG.

“For the third consecutive year, public sector net borrowing has seen a crescendo into the year end, with the past three years seeing the highest monthly degree of borrowing occur in Q4.

“Despite this following a wider trend, there it comes as no surprise that people are worried that this represents the beginning of a period where spending replaces natural economic growth, reversing the efforts to bring down debt over recent years.”

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