Fiscal policy remains tight in some quarters of the globe and there is still room for easing (as we saw with the Bank of Japan’s recent decision to enact some new quantitative easing measures). Additionally, ongoing debt deleveraging remains a concern, as does the recent move higher in oil prices.
Of course, we would also add the ongoing European debt crisis to the list of issues that could potentially disrupt the global economy’s positive momentum.
Oil prices spark concerns
A new risk has surfaced in the form of higher oil prices. The oil price spike from early 2011 is fresh in investors’ minds and the recent advance in oil prices has some wondering whether history will repeat itself. Last year’s price spike came as a result of social and political unrest throughout the Middle East and in North Africa and this year escalating geopolitical tensions with Iran has been the primary culprit.
While higher oil prices are unambiguously a negative for global economic growth and have the potential to act as a drag on equity markets, the scale of the recent increase has still been relatively modest. While higher oil prices bear watching, we would not consider oil a significant risk unless the price increase grows more severe.
Positive economic news and the absence of the emergence of additional downside risk has seen an impressive advance in stock prices. A few months ago, stocks were priced for a weaker macro environment than the one that has come to pass. So what will it take for stocks to continue to move higher? We believe we would need to see some broader improvements in economic data and/or further political progress in terms of reducing macro uncertainty.
Restructure
Greek debt restructuring deal should help reduce some uncertainty, assuming the measures are successfully implemented. There was little market response to the announced deal as it generally met investors’ expectations and there is still more work to be done on this front. We expect the situation in Greece to worsen from both a fiscal and social perspective, but we also believe that the debt restructuring will move forward.
Equity risk premiums have fallen in recent months as markets have rallied and we do believe there is room for further advances. At the same time, however, we expect the pace of price appreciation to become slower and more uneven. As we have been saying for the past couple of weeks, we would not be surprised to see some sort of pull-back or correction in the near term, but we also believe that stock prices will end the year higher than where they are today.
