Weekly outlook: ONS to reveal UK inflation data and Netflix reports

Key events for UK wealth managers for the week starting 17 April

Word inflation on British flag.


Monday 17 April

  • – Trading statements from Pagegroup and Ashmore
  • – US NAHB housebuilding industry survey

Tuesday 18 April

  • – Trading statements from Entain, Moneysupermarket.com, easyJet and QinetiQ
  • – Analysts’ meetings at Anglo American and Halfords
  • – China Q1 GDP growth
  • – Chinese retail sales, industrial production and capital expenditure monthly growth figures
  • – UK unemployment and wage growth
  • – Netflix Q1 results

Streaming giant Netflix will reveal its results for Q1 on Tuesday. Netflix’s shares have rallied in recent times, more than doubling since hitting lows in 2022.

However, share prices have been fairly flat over the last year and are still 50% below their peak in autumn 2021. AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould and head of financial analysis Danni Hewson laid out the bull and bear cases for the firm.

They said: “Bulls will argue the rally is justified because the initial fall was out of proportion to two quarters of missed subscriber growth estimates in the first half of 2022. They will also point to the rich catalogue of content and strong slate of shows, the launch of a new discounted ad-funded price package designed to win new subscribers and improved net customer additions in the second half of last year – Netflix added 7.7 million subs in Q4, well ahead of management’s guidance of 4.5 million.

“Bears will point to increased competition; the surging cost of content production; spotty cash flow; a balance sheet that carries not just $9.3bn (£7.4bn) of net debt, but more than $2bn in leases and nearly $22bn (£17.5bn) in guaranteed content purchase obligations; and a $151bn (£120.6bn) market cap that still puts the stock on around 30 times earnings for 2023, even though analysts believe earnings per share will grow at a low-teens percentage rate this year.”

Sophie Lund-Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown lead equity analyst, said: “There are some tailwinds blowing in Netflix’s favour as we look ahead to next week’s earnings. It seems people are spending more on streaming as they look to economise during the cost-of-living crisis. This clearly has potentially positive ramifications for the media giant, as does the continued roll out of its lower-priced ad-supported tier. This could help entice, and retain, consumers who are counting their pennies.

“Netflix is expecting to add fewer subscribers than the target-busting 7.7 million added last quarter, but revenue growth’s expected to be 8% ignoring exchange rates. We’re cautiously optimistic this target will be achieved given the helpful shift in social behaviour.

“That said, as ever, competition remains tough in the sector, meaning nothing’s guaranteed. With Netflix’s valuation enjoying a 16% uplift since the start of the year, the pressure’s on.”

  • – German ZEW industrial sentiment survey
  • – US building permits
  • – US new building starts
  • – In Europe, quarterly results from LM Ericsson and Faurecia
  • – In the US, quarterly results from Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon and United Airlines

Wednesday 19 April

  • – Full-year results from Morgan Advanced Materials
  • – Trading updates from Rio Tinto and Hunting
  • UK inflation figures

Following February’s inflationary shock, which saw the UK consumer price index (CPI) climb to 10.4%, investors and policymakers alike will be hoping for a cooling on Wednesday when the Office for National Statistics releases the CPI figure for March. Last week, US inflation fell to 5%.

AJ Bell’s Mould and Hewson said: ” [February’s] increase in services will be of particular concern to the Bank of England, as that may mean inflation is becoming entrenched, especially as wage growth is still ticking along (particularly for those in the private sector).

“This inflation reading could therefore help to shape the Monetary Policy Committee’s next decision on 11 May, when markets are looking for a further 25bps increase in the base rate to 4.5%, with either August or September maybe seeing one last hike for this cycle to 4.75%.”

  • – Analysts’ meeting at TI Fluid Systems
  • – EU inflation figures (final reading)
  • – Federal Reserve Beige Book
  • – US weekly oil inventories
  • – In Europe, quarterly results from ASML, Heineken, Just Eat Takeaway.com and Saipem
  • – In the US, quarterly results from Abbott Labs, Morgan Stanley, IBM, LAM Research, Baker Hughes, Citizens Financial, Carvana and Alcoa

Thursday 20 April

  • – Full-year results from Hochschild Mining
  • – First-half results from WH Smith
  • – Trading statements from Rentokil Initial, Dunelm, Foxtons, Deliveroo, GB Group and Centamin
  • – German producer price (factory gate) inflation
  • – EU consumer confidence
  • – US existing homes sales
  • – US weekly unemployment claims
  • – In Europe, quarterly results from EssilorLuxottica, Volvo, Nokia and Renault
  • – In the US, quarterly results from Philip Morris, American Express, Union Pacific, Marsh & McLennan, Blackstone, CSX and American Airlines

Friday 21 April

  • – Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing and services from Japan, Asia, Europe, the UK and US
  • – GfK UK consumer confidence survey
  • – Japanese core inflation reading
  • – In Australia, a trading update from BHP
  • – In Asia, quarterly results from China Telecom
  • – In Europe, quarterly results from SAP, Sandvik and Holcim
  • – In the US, quarterly results from Procter & Gamble, Honeywell and Schlumberger

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