Weekly outlook: BP to report in wake of Shell’s £32bn bonanza

Key events for UK wealth managers for the week starting 6 February

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Monday 6 February

  • – Purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for the UK construction industry
  • – German factory orders
  • – EU retail sales
  • – In Asia, monthly sales update from Taiwanese semiconductor foundry UMC
  • – In the US, quarterly results from Activision Blizzard, Simon Property, ON Semiconductor, Tyson Foods, Pinterest and Skyworks

Tuesday 7 February

  • – First-half results from Alumasc
  • – Trading statement from SSE
  • BP Q4 results

Following on from Shell announcing record £32.2bn profits for its financial year on 2 February, BP will post its own fourth quarter results on Tuesday.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould and analyst Danni Hewson said: “BP’s shares are up by just over a quarter over the past year, buoyed by oil and gas prices, as well as the company’s own self-help programme. Investors who place a premium on ethical and environmental issues may despair, but asset sales, capital investment cuts, cost reductions and debt repayment meant the firm was better placed to make the most of higher hydrocarbon prices.

“Oil and gas prices are now trading some way off their peaks, but the shares continue to rise, which is intriguing. Perhaps the markets are sensing another upward move in the price of fossil fuels, and perhaps that’s thanks to the prospect of increased demand from China as its economy reopens, America’s need to replenish its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, weak Russian output, Opec’s apparent determination to maintain a balanced market and the majors’ unwillingness (or inability) to markedly increase capital investment in exploration and production.

“Equally, a worldwide recession and a downturn in demand could mean weaker oil and gas prices, something which central bankers, politicians, consumers and economists would probably rather see, thanks to the benefits this would bring to inflation and potentially interest rates to boot.”

  • – Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia
  • – Halifax UK house price index
  • – US trade balance
  • – In Japan, quarterly results from Softbank and Nintendo
  • – In Europe, quarterly results from BNP Paribas, Carlsberg, Siemens Energy and Securitas
  • – Also in Europe, quarterly results or trading updates from Linde, KKR, Illumina, Yum! China, Royal Caribbean Cruises and Kraft-Heinz

Wednesday 8 February

  • – Full-year results from Smurfit Kappa
  • – First-half results from Barratt Developments and PZ Cussons

Barratt Developments will publish its H1 results on Wednesday, with analysts seeing it as a barometer for what 2023 may hold for the property market.

Sophie Lund-Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst, said: “Barratt Developments is starting to show the first cracks in the housing market. We already know that net private reservations per week fell to 155 from 259 in the first half of the year. As the mortgage-rate environment remains challenging for home buyers, we don’t expect to hear things are picking up in this area.

“The more detailed half year results should give an indication on cost inflation and profits. The entire construction industry has been facing high material and labour costs since last year, which chips away at profitability. We’d like to know if things are moving in the right direction where the cost base is concerned.

“Most important will be the outlook statement. The group should give an indication of how forward sales are looking and what the rest of 2023 could look like. With the economic landscape still fraught with uncertainty, there could be a market reaction if news is worse than expected. We would be surprised to see any very dramatic downwards moves though because a lot of nervousness is already priced in.“

  • – Trading statements from DCC
  • – US weekly oil inventories
  • – In Asia, quarterly results from Hong Kong Exchanges
  • – In Europe, quarterly results from TotalEnergies, Equinor, AP Møller-Maersk, Vestas Wind Systems, Société Générale, ABN Amro, Akzo Nobel and Yara
  • – In the US, quarterly results from Walt Disney, CVS, Uber, Yum! Brands, Fox, Robinhood, Mattel and Coherent

Thursday 9 February

  • – Full-year results from AstraZeneca
  • – First-half results from Redrow
  • – Trading statements from Compass, Watches of Switzerland and Bellway
  • – US weekly unemployment claims
  • Unilever Q4 results

On Thursday, Unilever will post its results for its final quarter. It will be the last set of results in chief executive Alan Jope’s tenure at the helm of the firm, with non-executive director Hein Schumacher taking over the role on 1 July.

Jope’s retirement follows on from what Hewson and Mould describe as a ‘tumultuous’ year for Unilever, in which it failed in a £50bn bid for Haleon and downgraded its profit margin expectations for 2022.

Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “How Unilever is coping with price pressures will be key to how full year results go down. The group has been grappling with significant cost increases and margins have been under pressure this year. It will be CEO Alan Jope’s last chance to release results, as he makes way for a new leader, starting on 1 July. Will he hint at any changes to strategy or leave it to his successor Hein Schumacher to set out the stall?”

  • – In Japan, quarterly results from Toyota Motor, Tokyo Electron, Renasas and Nikon
  • – In Europe, quarterly results from L’Oréal, Siemens, Volvo Cars, Arcelor Mittal, Credit Suisse, Delivery Hero and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield
  • – In the US, quarterly results from Philip Morris, Paypal, Warner Bros Discovery, Kellogg, Warner Music and Lyft

Friday 10 February

  • – Full-year results from Lancashire Holdings
  • – Trading statements from Victrex and S & U
  • – Chinese inflation figures
  • – UK Q4 GDP growth
  • – UK construction, manufacturing and industrial output data
  • – In Japan, quarterly results from Olympus and Mazda Motor
  • – In Asia, monthly sales update from the world’s largest semiconductor foundry TSMC
  • – In Europe, quarterly results from Saab
  • – In the US, quarterly results from Millicom

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