At the end of 2012, the high risk Trustee MPI held 69% in equities and by the end of Q3 this had grown to 75%. However, it is certainly not the great rotation that has been talked about as over the same time period fixed income allocations remained flat, starting the year at 12.1% and ending Q3 at 11.4%.
Cash reserves have also been pretty much the same (5.3% to 5.7%) so if there is a rotation it is certainly not a ‘great’ one.
If anything, portfolio managers have been moving out of commodities, property and private equity. Defined as ‘other’ in the Trustee MPI, they started the year as 7.4% of high-risk portfolios and by the end of Q3 this has shrunk to a little above 3%.
A similar picture is painted in the low and medium-risk portfolios though not to the same extent.
Unsurprisingly, the low-risk portfolios have varied very little with equities moving from 33.8% to 37%, fixed income from 40.8% to 36.3% and even ‘other’ has dropped to to 5.3% from 6.3%. l
As ever, portfolio managers are unwilling to be satisfied with the gains they have already made and are looking to the future, with some interesting trends for Q4 starting to emerge. Within the high risk portfolios, for example, discretionaries are preparing for a pull back in equities.
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