china at end of slowdown

Fears of a China hard landing are overblown, despite news the world’s second-largest economy grew at its slowest pace in three years in Q1, according Fidelity’s Trevor Greetham.

china at end of slowdown


Headline GDP figures released today revealed growth of 8.1% down from 8.9% in the previous quarter.

This was lower than many had expected and had a dampening effect on markets and particularly oil prices, which broke three days of gains.

But analysts dismissed calls of a hard landing and said while the figures were disappointing they were not shocking.

Greetham, director of asset allocation at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, said it has been difficult to evaluate Chinese economic data recently because of distortions related to Chinese New Year, but OECD leading economic indicators had recently shown a strong pick up.

"Inflation is peaking and if past monetary relationships hold, China could be in deflation by year end. With one eye on the up-coming leadership transition, policy makers could soon replace easing at the margin with outright stimulus," Greetham said.

"This would benefit global growth plays like commodities, the emerging markets and the Aussie dollar which have all lagged lately on concerns China is heading for a hard landing," he added.

Greetham also thinks a pick-up in global growth should boost Chinese exports over the next two quarters and said to stick with a hard landing view one has to believe that either the authorities are powerless to stimulate the economy or that global growth is collapsing.

"Neither seems a sensible base case," he concluded.



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